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The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World's Most Controversial Resource, by Leonardo Maugeri
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Oil is the most vital resource of our time. Because it is so important, misperceptions about the black gold abound. Leonardo Maugeri clears the cobwebs by describing the colorful history of oil, and explaining the fundamentals of oil production. He delivers a unique, fascinating, and controversial perspective on the industry―as only an insider could. The history of the oil market has been marked, since its inception, by a succession of booms and busts, each one leading to a similar psychological climax and flawed political decisions. In a single generation, we've experienced the energy crisis of 1973; the dramatic oil countershock of 1986; the oil collapse of 1998-99 that gave rise to the idea of oil as just another commodity; and the sharp price increases following hurricane Katrina's devastation in the Gulf of Mexico. Today, we are experiencing a global oil boom that, paradoxically, seems to herald a gloomy era of scarcity exacerbated by growing consumption and the threat from Islamic terrorism in the oil-rich Middle East.
Maugeri argues that the pessimists are wrong. In the second part of his book, he debunks the main myths surrounding oil in our times, addressing whether we are indeed running out of oil, and the real impact of Islamic radicalism on oil-rich regions. By translating many of the technical concepts of oil productions into terms the average reader can easily grasp, Maugeri answers our questions. Ultimately, he concludes that the wolf is not at the door. We are facing neither a problem of oil scarcity, nor an upcoming oil blackmail by forces hostile to the West. Only bad political decisions driven by a distorted view of current problems (and who is to blame for them) can doom us to a gloomy oil future.
- Sales Rank: #1326811 in Books
- Published on: 2006-05-30
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.21" h x .81" w x 6.14" l, 1.54 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 360 pages
From Booklist
Sixty years ago, a British diplomat was questioned about the morality of his government's policies in the Middle East. "The world," he responded, "runs on oil, not on quaint notions of right or wrong." With the soaring price of oil now threatening to spur a dreaded inflationary cycle here and abroad, those words certainly resonate. There is understandable anxiety, even hysteria, regarding the future cost and availability of this vital resource. Maugeri has attempted to explain to lay readers how the oil industry developed, how it works, and where it is headed. The history of oil, Maugeri illustrates, has always been characterized by cycles of booms and busts, but they are caused by market factors, not malevolent conspiracies. The present danger, he claims, is that panicky or ambitious politicians will make current problems far worse. Maugeri minimizes the threat of blackmail by oil--producing nations, and he dismisses fears that the world is running out of oil. Environmentalists and those who demand reliance on alternative renewable-energy sources will dispute many of his assertions. Still, this is a valuable effort to explain the issues. Jay Freeman
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved
Review
"Maugeri's authoritative, well-written assessment of the global oil situation relates so well to the current energy predicament that it belongs in most academic and public library collections. With knowledge and experience in developmental strategy for a major international oil company, Maugeri provides a lively, insightful perspective to the history and condition of the world petroleum industry. A specific argument is carried through the book: the world is not running out of oil--there is more than enough oil in the ground. Sequences of oil scarcity and overproduction are shown to be more related to economics and politics than to geology and technology. The 21 specific chapters are encompassed in two principal parts: A History of an Unreliable Market (and the Bad Policies It Prompted) and Misconceptions and Problems Ahead. Appendixes deal with oil consumption and with the production and reserves of specific countries and major oil companies. As a library holding for students of political science, economics, science, and technology, this book should be shared with its antithesis, Kenneth S. Deffeyes's Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak. Well footnoted; extensive bibliography; thorough index. Highly recommended. Lower-division undergraduates through faculty." - Choice
"Maugeri leverages his insider's knowledge to cast doubt on those who argue that oil reserves are dwindling or that geopolitical concerns have rendered the future of oil production too unreliable to be viable….[r]ecommended for academic libraries….[o]f interest to public libraries." - Library Journal
"In marked contrast to the panic-crisis books of late, this work strikes an optimistic chord on the state of world-oil supplies….Unlike the resource pessimists, Maugeri asserts that due to the uncertainty about the level of world reserves, any attempt to quantify supply is futile. Not only does he argue soundly, but he solidifies his position by insights gleaned from long experiencce in the industry. While some of his conclusions may be rejected, his research is not to be disputed." - The Engergy Journal
"This informative book is really two in one: a concise treatment of the checkered but fascinating history of the oil industry, from Edwin Drake's first successful well and John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil Trust to post-Saddam Iraq, and an extended nontechnical essay on the myths and misconceptions that have come to surround this important commodity. As senior vice president of Eni, the Italian oil firm, the author is an industry insider, but he draws on a wide range of scholarship and writes persuasively and well." - Foreign Affairs
"Are we running low on oil? After a slew of books by pessimists, here is a convincing counterargument by an oil company analyst. Maugeri explains that the industry has been scarred by recurrent periods of over-production. The major players' resulting cautiousness probably makes current estimates of reserves very conservative., if prices continue at today's levels we can expect aggressive investments in exploration and technology to yield enormous extra supply." - Harvard Business Review
"Believing calls for economic independence from oil to be an insupportable overdramatization and sterile overreaction to oil's cyclical behavior, Maugery seeks to counter the trap of catastrophism that he sees as infiltrating the public discussion as deeply as the George W. Bush administration. He sets out to debunk these fears by describing this cyclical behavior through the history of the oil industry and similarly recurrent fears about oil shortages, fears that would produce a damaging American interventionist policy in the Middle East, as he suggests." - SciTech Book News
"Maugeri minimizes the threat of blackmail by oil-producing nations, and he dismisses fears that the world is running out of oil. Environmentalists and those who demand reliance on alternative renewable-energy sources will dispute many of his assertions. Still, this is a valuable effort to explain the issues." - Booklist
Review
"Leonardo Maugeri provides a lively and insightful history of oil, the world's most controversial commodity, and an informed perspective on key questions for the future, including the hot topic of whether the world really is running out. He also brings his wisdom and experience to bear in making sense of the not-so-secret secret of oil-- its critical role in the world economy and global politics." (Daniel Yergin author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power)
"Leonardo Maugeri is a contrarian, dissenting from much of the conventional wisdom about the future of oil. He has written a fascinating history of the politics and economics of petroleum, from John D. Rockefeller to the present, that places today's discussions about energy in a broader context. Agree or disagree with his conclusions, Maugeri is always interesting and insightful and this book is essential reading." (Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International)
"Leonardo Maugeri's book is certain to spark a fierce debate, as he fully intends. With skill and wit and deep knowledge, he challenges some widely held perceptions about oil. The result is one of the best books written on oil, a book that will become an essential part of any future discussion on oil." (Richard Holbrooke, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations)
"Everything you wanted to learn about the history of oil, from the days of the Rockefellers to the Iraq war. A clear, well written, and convincing argument runs through the book: Pessimism and doomsday predictions have come and gone, at least three times in the 20th century. Pessimistic predictions have come again; again, they are equally likely to go. I was convinced." (Olivier Blanchard, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
"The book makes an important contribution to the debate about the future of energy security. The author reinforces the idea that oil markets are volatile, with a long history of boom and bust cycles in the industry. This is a serious book by a serious author--it demonstrates his hard work, in-depth knowledge and vast experience as a senior for one of the world's premier oil companies." (J. Robinson West, Chairman, Corporate Advisory Group, PFC Energy)
Most helpful customer reviews
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent read
By SD
This was a really interesting book to read. It is well written, so even when he is giving the detailed history, it is easy to read. The book is non-political in my opinion. I was hoping for greater confirmation that we are not any where near peak oil. He seems to have this opinon (that there is plenty of oil) but does not really focus on it. He pretty much deals with the facts and lets you make your own conclusions. Many of the negative opinions seem to be from the "oil panic" crowd that does not want to have their point of view challenged.
The book is very educational and very informative. You learn that we are not likely to run out of oil any time soon, that we have been through many oil cylcles with extremely high prices, and the market always has stabilized.
Worth your time to read.
22 of 26 people found the following review helpful.
A strong dose of perspective in today's crazy oil market
By T. Umrath
I found this book to be a fantastic history of the oil industry and an interesting, thoughtful perspective on the not-so-dismal future of petroleum. I've read about 20 books on energy over the past two years. For me, this one ranks a close second to Vaclav Smil's "Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties"; ("Age of Oil", however, is much better suited for a general audience). I found it scholarly, logical, and pragmatic. I think readers will appreciate how Maugeri unravels the complex world of oil prices, economic, political and geological impact on exploration/production, and the mysteries of reserves accounting. At $49, the book is expensive, but I think it's worth the price to anyone who's interested in the history of and prognosis for oil. I read it in two nights and found it well worth the money.
11 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
"The Age of Oil" by Leonardo Maugeri: The Glass is Half Full
By Aldo Manzini
Highly Recommended; In Part I of his book, Maugeri, a senior executive at ENI, the Italian oil "major", takes us through an overview of the history of "black gold" from its discovery up to the second Gulf War. This is a story that has been told by others (most notably Yergin). Part II, on the other hand, is primarily concerned with refuting the arguments of the oil "doomsayers" (see Simmons, Kunstler, et al) who predict a bleak future characterized by a growing World demand and a declining World supply of oil and gas. Maugeri thinks this is all nonsense, and he goes on and tries to refute each step in the doomsayers' logical construct.
At its core, Maugeri's position is based on simple microeconomics. This is the mainstream view which suggests that as with any commodity, high demand will lead to high prices which in turn will justify investments in exploration and extraction technologies, thus ultimately leading to higher supply and a fall in prices. In his view, the absence of any major new field discoveries in recent decades is nothing more than a reflection of a lack of investments in exploration during the eighties and nineties, as opposed to a clear signal that we are reaching the bottom of the barrel.
Similarly, Maugeri dismisses the concerns of the political and military strategists that fret over the West's dependence on the Middle East. In his view, the dependence is even greater in the opposite direction, a fact by now well understood by producing countries in the Middle East (including charter members of the "axis of evil" such as Iran) whose political survival is tied to satisfying the economic demands of their fast growing populations. Thus, the U.S. military presence in the Gulf region is viewed by Maugeri as unnecessary at best.
Maugeri is obviously an optimist. It is quite possible that in fact the necessary investments will be made, that new supply will come on stream "just-in-time" to meet the growing energy demands of another billion Chinese and another billion Indians eager to join the global economy and substantially raise their living standards. But there is no certainty that this will be so. It is just as easy and logically defensible to imagine a World of declining "cheap" reserves, forced to dig a lot deeper and a lot harder to satisfy the demands of a competitive global economy, where the supply trend is chronically out of step with demand, and where the market is hostage to the fear of the next supply disruption (sounds familiar?). What might be the market clearing price under such conditions? No one knows for sure. What we do know is that there is no economic law that suggests that the price of oil should always be lower than the price of a barrel of Perrier water ($426).
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